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Simulation and analysis of river runoff in typicalcold regions
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Citation of this paper:QiuDong Zhao,BaiSheng Ye,YongJian Ding,ShiQiang Zhang,ChuanCheng Zhao,Jian Wang,ZengRu Wang,2011.Simulation and analysis of river runoff in typicalcold regions.Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,3(6):0498~0508.
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Author NameAffiliationE-mail
QiuDong Zhao Division of Hydrology and Water-Land Resources in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China dsslab@163.com 
BaiSheng Ye State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China  
YongJian Ding 1. Division of Hydrology and Water-Land Resources in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China 2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,  
ShiQiang Zhang Division of Hydrology and Water-Land Resources in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China  
ChuanCheng Zhao Division of Hydrology and Water-Land Resources in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China  
Jian Wang Division of Hydrology and Water-Land Resources in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China  
ZengRu Wang State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China  
 
Abstract:It is generally agreed that global warming is taking place, which has caused runoff generation processes and apparently total runoff amount changes in cold regions of Northwestern China. It is absolutely necessary to quantify and analyze earth surface hydrological processes by numerical models for formulating scientific sustainable development of water resources. Hydrological models became established tools for studying the hydrological cycle, but did not consider frozen soil or glacier hydrology. Thus, they should be improved to satisfy the simulation of hydrological processes in cold regions. In this paper, an energy balance glacier melt model was successfully coupled to the VIC model with frozen soil scheme, thus improving the models performance in a cold catchment area. We performed the improved VIC model to simulate the hydrological processes in the Aksu River Basin, and the simulated results are in good agreement with observed data. Based on modeling hydrological data, the runoff components and their response to climate change were analyzed. The results show: (1) Glacial meltwater recharge accounts for 29.2% of runoff for the Toxkan River, and 58.7% for the Kunma Like River. (2) The annual total runoff of two branches of the Aksu River show increasing trends, increased by about 43.1%, 25.95×106 m3 per year for the Toxkan River and by 13.1%, 14.09×106 m3 per year for the Kunma Like River during the latter 38 years. (3) The annual total runoff of the Toxkan River increased simply due to the increase of non-glacial runoff, while the increase of annual total runoff of the Kunma Like River was the result of increasing glacial (42%) and non-glacial runoff (58%).
keywords:glacier  energy and mass balance  hydrologic model  hydrologic process simulation  Aksu River Basin
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